April 6, 2013

Solar demand grows; costs falling down

From Energy and Capital

Situation:

l. Nuclear energy is having an image problem thanks to Chernobyl and Fukushima incident.  And the latest news of leaking underground nuclear waste tanks in Washington. 

2.  Natural gas is cheap and plenty:  at Malampaya in PHL and contested area with China in Palawan.  The Sta Rita power plant in Batangas rated at 1GW gets its CNG from Malampaya.  CNG can not compete with nuclear even on cost, cleanliness, and safety.

3.  Fossil fuel supply has been erratic, and so with its price;  $40.00/barrel, then it could shoot up over $l00.00 per barrel

4.  Hydro -  el Nino, la Nina, typhoons, drought has made hydro as unreliable.   While it is supposed to be cheap, siltation and maintainance of hydro has been expensive.   Agus I in Mindanao has been derated at 30% capacity.

Time to invest in solar?

Demand for solar capacity, and that is without government subsidy is at 30 gigaWatts in 2013 with strong demand coming from India, US, China, and Germany. This is according to Deutsche Bank.   Indias New and Renewable Energy Ministry increased its RE capacity by 12.4 gW, making a total of 26 gW.  India has to accelerate its Re capacity because it is ranked as one of the most polluted countries/cities in the world (For the EV cars, M and M has developed a car with 100 mile range on a single charge).  India is really taking the issue of renewables very seriously.

Costs of Solar panels has been falling down by as much as 50% over the last 2 years.

In Gerrmany, renewables contribute up to 25% of its total generating capacity. Thanks to FIT program, Germany has been a leading supplier of renewables, especially solar worldwide.  In Germany alone, there could be 80 gW of power generation from solar

Energy and capital


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